Interesting, to a point. You have heard of chaos theory. Forgive me for clarifying. It involves non-linear dynamics with positive and negative feedback loops. Its path is unpredictable.
Similar in some ways is catastrophe and/or critical slope theory. Bottom line can’t predict when or how bad.
Malthus warned us that civilization was unsustainable with exponential population growth and geometric food supply growth. Yet economists and scientists dismissed him, believing in the great, inventive intellect of humans. (Any idea why Musk wants to colonize Mars?)
Because of overpopulation we are experiencing the great collapse and bandaids will not save us.
Stages of collapse? We—people—always want to classify, categorize and quantify but we are dealing with mathematical dynamics that are unpredictable.
Just my opinion.
Note: the underlying structure of capitalism is built upon exponential growth known as interest rates and other rates of percentage growth. Capitalism itself is helping to destroy the planet just by its basic math structure.
You're absolutely right Jim that as badly as we might want to, we can't predict how this all will play out. However, our actions have definitely shifted the probabilities dramatically. Within the context of healthcare, our refusal to have hard conversations to contain costs and define priorities over the course of my life, has dramatically shifted the probabilities that the system can respond to the shocks that are coming with older, sicker patients, increased health impacts of the weather, despair, and medical bankruptcies.
I completely agree with you. I think of probabilities in a Bayesian way of thinking and always aware of the probability trap posited by the philosopher David Hume.
I wonder if the greatest philosopher of our time was Bobby McFerrin who wrote and sang “Don’t worry, be happy.” It is out of our control.
However, IMO, those that want to go longer with less anxiety will learn from people like you. I appreciate your writings.
Speaking purely from a demographic perspective, we peaked at about 170 million people in America and the world, around 3.5 billion. Beyond that we have greatly exceeded the planet’s carrying capacity.
That definitely seems plausible. How did you come to those numbers? It also makes me wonder about strategic de-growth. Like how do you move back toward lower population and lower consumption in an intentional way rather than a forced way.
A rough estimate from the late 1960s (although a little high for the US). We have put so much strain on the planet’s biological and other natural resources and it’s really self evident now. To come back in a non forceful way will take centuries. It doesn’t bode well for future generations, nor for any other species. Looking forward to migrating outward, how and why should we do that if we haven’t learned to protect and cherish what we have? It begins with us, Amy.
I haven't yet watched the video, but the summary really echos what I am seeing, living in very rural America and used to traveling for big medical procedures. Or even the dentist at this point. I am showing learning how mother Earth healed us before the industrial machine changed things. I appreciate your work and your voice, thank you.
Thanks Melissa, the withdrawal of the American healthcare system from rural America is a big story unto itself. In our neck of the woods we see the effect of it most on Labor and Delivery units. It's tough because you definitely want qualified experienced people running those units, but on the other hand, driving 2-3 hours while in labor isn't really safe or feasible either. I'm sure that more people choose home births in that scenario, and the best evidence suggests that is a reasonable choice for a lot of people, but higher risk pregnancies occur without regard to geography.
It is really hard to get people to work in any sector in our very rural community. Luckily when my babies were born, we had a thriving hospital. My husband and I both are disabled veterans on VA health care, and it is difficult to even get a virtual appointment with a provider. We haven't had a doctor in our local clinic for years now.
Watching the care decrease, then having kids in the public school system briefly showed me that we as individuals are the only ones really responsible for our health and wellness.
I feel for people in the health care industry, because it is like being a farmer. Always do more with less. Profits matter.
I finished watching the video, such a gift. I am a federal worker in a land management agency, and also a rancher living on the family home place for 4 decades at this point. My very unique understanding of environmental law and also life experience has really gifted me with a hands on practical knowledge of how working locally is the only way to make a difference where you live. My personal goal when I had young children was to feed them real food and let them live on a ranch. I spent time in the Army, and knew personally not to trust any big system. As my kids grew up and I started reading again for fun, I realize just how wonderful and giving mother earth is if we just can listen. She supported me before I knew how to live well, and every gardening failure and livestock success has taught me that there is always an exchange. Life needs death. Our modern society is always trying to avoid death, something that is inevitable. We lose sight of living a good life while we have the chance when caught up in the consumer society until it fails us. I have found that living my "best" life involves being outside everyday and being grateful for all the gifts presented to me.
I guess I could go on and on, but mostly this video made me think for 2 days, and I appreciate both of your time in sharing the conversation.
Tha k you Melissa! What you are saying about death makes me think that our fear of death is part of what makes us priorize safety too high on the list of societal and parental goods. Like there are somethings worth being injured or dying for, but we often lose sight of that and back into our deaths.
Interesting, to a point. You have heard of chaos theory. Forgive me for clarifying. It involves non-linear dynamics with positive and negative feedback loops. Its path is unpredictable.
Similar in some ways is catastrophe and/or critical slope theory. Bottom line can’t predict when or how bad.
Malthus warned us that civilization was unsustainable with exponential population growth and geometric food supply growth. Yet economists and scientists dismissed him, believing in the great, inventive intellect of humans. (Any idea why Musk wants to colonize Mars?)
Because of overpopulation we are experiencing the great collapse and bandaids will not save us.
Stages of collapse? We—people—always want to classify, categorize and quantify but we are dealing with mathematical dynamics that are unpredictable.
Just my opinion.
Note: the underlying structure of capitalism is built upon exponential growth known as interest rates and other rates of percentage growth. Capitalism itself is helping to destroy the planet just by its basic math structure.
You're absolutely right Jim that as badly as we might want to, we can't predict how this all will play out. However, our actions have definitely shifted the probabilities dramatically. Within the context of healthcare, our refusal to have hard conversations to contain costs and define priorities over the course of my life, has dramatically shifted the probabilities that the system can respond to the shocks that are coming with older, sicker patients, increased health impacts of the weather, despair, and medical bankruptcies.
I completely agree with you. I think of probabilities in a Bayesian way of thinking and always aware of the probability trap posited by the philosopher David Hume.
I wonder if the greatest philosopher of our time was Bobby McFerrin who wrote and sang “Don’t worry, be happy.” It is out of our control.
However, IMO, those that want to go longer with less anxiety will learn from people like you. I appreciate your writings.
PS, because of you I now have a supply of nettle tea when before you I didn’t know what a nettle was.
Awesome! I take pride in being a bit of a nettle evangelist.
Speaking purely from a demographic perspective, we peaked at about 170 million people in America and the world, around 3.5 billion. Beyond that we have greatly exceeded the planet’s carrying capacity.
That definitely seems plausible. How did you come to those numbers? It also makes me wonder about strategic de-growth. Like how do you move back toward lower population and lower consumption in an intentional way rather than a forced way.
A rough estimate from the late 1960s (although a little high for the US). We have put so much strain on the planet’s biological and other natural resources and it’s really self evident now. To come back in a non forceful way will take centuries. It doesn’t bode well for future generations, nor for any other species. Looking forward to migrating outward, how and why should we do that if we haven’t learned to protect and cherish what we have? It begins with us, Amy.
I haven't yet watched the video, but the summary really echos what I am seeing, living in very rural America and used to traveling for big medical procedures. Or even the dentist at this point. I am showing learning how mother Earth healed us before the industrial machine changed things. I appreciate your work and your voice, thank you.
Thanks Melissa, the withdrawal of the American healthcare system from rural America is a big story unto itself. In our neck of the woods we see the effect of it most on Labor and Delivery units. It's tough because you definitely want qualified experienced people running those units, but on the other hand, driving 2-3 hours while in labor isn't really safe or feasible either. I'm sure that more people choose home births in that scenario, and the best evidence suggests that is a reasonable choice for a lot of people, but higher risk pregnancies occur without regard to geography.
It is really hard to get people to work in any sector in our very rural community. Luckily when my babies were born, we had a thriving hospital. My husband and I both are disabled veterans on VA health care, and it is difficult to even get a virtual appointment with a provider. We haven't had a doctor in our local clinic for years now.
Watching the care decrease, then having kids in the public school system briefly showed me that we as individuals are the only ones really responsible for our health and wellness.
I feel for people in the health care industry, because it is like being a farmer. Always do more with less. Profits matter.
Thanks again, the discussion is very important.
I finished watching the video, such a gift. I am a federal worker in a land management agency, and also a rancher living on the family home place for 4 decades at this point. My very unique understanding of environmental law and also life experience has really gifted me with a hands on practical knowledge of how working locally is the only way to make a difference where you live. My personal goal when I had young children was to feed them real food and let them live on a ranch. I spent time in the Army, and knew personally not to trust any big system. As my kids grew up and I started reading again for fun, I realize just how wonderful and giving mother earth is if we just can listen. She supported me before I knew how to live well, and every gardening failure and livestock success has taught me that there is always an exchange. Life needs death. Our modern society is always trying to avoid death, something that is inevitable. We lose sight of living a good life while we have the chance when caught up in the consumer society until it fails us. I have found that living my "best" life involves being outside everyday and being grateful for all the gifts presented to me.
I guess I could go on and on, but mostly this video made me think for 2 days, and I appreciate both of your time in sharing the conversation.
Tha k you Melissa! What you are saying about death makes me think that our fear of death is part of what makes us priorize safety too high on the list of societal and parental goods. Like there are somethings worth being injured or dying for, but we often lose sight of that and back into our deaths.
What's in your head is much more important in dealing with social and economic collapse than anything you could possibly accumulate.
Yes, and your heart too, the ability to maintain connection and manage conflict will be tremendously important.